# How serious is this citation error in David Jeremiah's new book?



## smhbbag (Nov 23, 2009)

A few Sundays ago, I read Dr. David Jeremiah's new book _Living with Confidence in a Chaotic World_. Why I read it is a long story  

The book is a follow-up to his work _What in the World is Going ON_. That book is a relatively standard Dispensational/Pre-mill presentation of how events in the past 50 years are clearly showing we are in the last days. He wrote _Living with Confidence in a Chaotic World_ as a practical follow-up for how Christians should be living in light of that belief.

Although most of the new book is about practical living, the introduction rehashes the basics of his previous book. In that introduction, he writes:

"Between the years 2000-2009, worldwide earthquakes have risen by 40%."

That smelled pretty fishy, so I looked up the citation. He offers this site from the US Geological survey as his source: USGS Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Facts and Statistics

The table does indeed show the increase he stated. I still smelled something fishy. The USGS has a link on that same page (above the tables) explaining the apparent increase.

Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?



> We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. *Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.*
> 
> _A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. _This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.



They first note that the serious earthquakes have not increased in any significant way, and secondly they note that their monitoring ability has allowed them to measure more earthquakes over time. Logically, these would be the smaller ones. This would explain (at least partially) the rise in small earthquakes while the larger ones have remained "fairly constant" in their words.

So, my question: does he not have a responsibility to note the opinion of the USGS on the apparent increase? The 40% figure that Dr. Jeremiah uses is not listed on the page. So, either he saw it somewhere else, or he saw the table and did a simple calculation. The link to the USGS explanation is directly beside the table he took data from.

I sent an email asking for clarification to a couple of addresses at his ministry for general questions, and have received no response.

Am I wrong to take that as either 1) Serious neglect and oversight or 2) willful deception?

He is a good brother, but this is really bothering me, even now a while after I read it and emailed them. I am forcing myself to believe he simply did not see the link nor the USGS explanation. 

Because if he saw it, then he is citing the USGS as saying something that they did not say - namely that they know there has been a 40% increase in earthquake activity.


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## fredtgreco (Nov 23, 2009)

Jeremy,

If I had to guess, he likely used a research assistant (as many authors do), and a careful check was not done. That's doesn't make it right, but it does explain it without attributing it to sin.


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