No Other Name
Puritan Board Junior
Gators aren't looking great. Neutral site I would have taken the Canes but in the Swamp? I thought they would be at another level. 2nd quarter so it is early but it really doesn't look good.
2024 PB Pick'em Week 1 ** Kick-off is 7pm CDT, THURSDAY **
- Thread starter SolaScriptura
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Edward
Puritanboard Commissioner
I deserved to lose that one. I should have known better
SolaScriptura
Puritanboard Brimstone
All right, folks... our Week 1 competition is in the books. There were a few surprises - such as Vandy's upset win over Virginia Tech - and this week gave us our initial glimpse at how some of these teams might perform over the course of the season.
The teams who the professional prognosticators projected to win did so in 9 cases. So those who got more than 9 correct did better than the oddsmakers. Well done!
Ultimately it came down to a tie between 3dawg and Jason at 12, but Jason's tie-breaker score was a tad bit closer to the actual score than was 3dawg's ... so Jason F is crowned our Week 1 winner. Congratulations, Jason!
Here's how everyone did:
Jason F. - 12
3dawg - 12
Mark, Willis, Lane - 11
Edward - 10
Todd, Andrew - 8
Zach - 7
Brad - 6
Me - 5
The teams who the professional prognosticators projected to win did so in 9 cases. So those who got more than 9 correct did better than the oddsmakers. Well done!
Ultimately it came down to a tie between 3dawg and Jason at 12, but Jason's tie-breaker score was a tad bit closer to the actual score than was 3dawg's ... so Jason F is crowned our Week 1 winner. Congratulations, Jason!
Here's how everyone did:
Jason F. - 12
3dawg - 12
Mark, Willis, Lane - 11
Edward - 10
Todd, Andrew - 8
Zach - 7
Brad - 6
Me - 5
3dawgnight
Puritan Board Freshman
As a lifelong Mississippi State fan, my heart is immune to disappointment. Congrats, Jason!All right, folks... our Week 1 competition is in the books. There were a few surprises - such as Vandy's upset win over Virginia Tech - and this week gave us our initial glimpse at how some of these teams might perform over the course of the season.
The teams who the professional prognosticators projected to win did so in 9 cases. So those who got more than 9 correct did better than the oddsmakers. Well done!
Ultimately it came down to a tie between 3dawg and Jason at 12, but Jason's tie-breaker score was a tad bit closer to the actual score than was 3dawg's ... so Jason F is crowned our Week 1 winner. Congratulations, Jason!
Here's how everyone did:
Jason F. - 12
3dawg - 12
Mark, Willis, Lane - 11
Edward - 10
Todd, Andrew - 8
Zach - 7
Brad - 6
Me - 5
Sovereign Grace
Puritan Board Sophomore
A quick question or two, or three.All right, folks... our Week 1 competition is in the books. There were a few surprises - such as Vandy's upset win over Virginia Tech - and this week gave us our initial glimpse at how some of these teams might perform over the course of the season.
The teams who the professional prognosticators projected to win did so in 9 cases. So those who got more than 9 correct did better than the oddsmakers. Well done!
Ultimately it came down to a tie between 3dawg and Jason at 12, but Jason's tie-breaker score was a tad bit closer to the actual score than was 3dawg's ... so Jason F is crowned our Week 1 winner. Congratulations, Jason!
Here's how everyone did:
Jason F. - 12
3dawg - 12
Mark, Willis, Lane - 11
Edward - 10
Todd, Andrew - 8
Zach - 7
Brad - 6
Me - 5
@3dawgnight predicted ND 31-27 and @Jason F. predicted 37-17. How did the win go to Jason over Rick when the final score was 23-13? Did you total both scores and use that as the criteria? Meaning, Jason’s score total was 54 and Rick’s was 58. Just wondering how you will settle ties henceforth. I’ve been wanting to use that word, BTW.
SolaScriptura
Puritanboard Brimstone
Willis - please see the previous post (about the rules and format for this year's Pick'em) about how the tie-breaker works. @toddpedlar can chime in to provide the mathematical/formulaic nitty gritty.A quick question or two, or three.
@3dawgnight predicted ND 31-27 and @Jason F. predicted 37-17. How did the win go to Jason over Rick when the final score was 23-13? Did you total both scores and use that as the criteria? Meaning, Jason’s score total was 54 and Rick’s was 58. Just wondering how you will settle ties henceforth. I’ve been wanting to use that word, BTW.
But long story short it factors in the differential between the guessed winner's score and the actual winner's score AND the guessed loser's score and the actual loser's score noting the difference between those.
In this case Jason guessed the score would be 37-17 and 3dawg guessed the score would be 31-27. The actual score was 23-13. In the case of Jason, in terms of raw numbers, his guessed winner score was 14 over actual and his guessed loser score was 4 over... In the case of 3dawg's raw numbers, his guessed winner score was 8 over actual and his guessed loser's score was 14 over.
This produced a score differential of 16.12452 in the case of 3dawg, and 14.56022 in the case of Jason. Lower is better.
Sovereign Grace
Puritan Board Sophomore
I did read it, but was unclear about what you meant. That’s why I asked those questions to seek clarification. Thanks for clearing it up.
Edward
Puritanboard Commissioner
I ran the contest several times before Todd was able to explain the formula so that I could understand it. I had to take it on faith. It's built into a spreadsheet that Todd designed.
toddpedlar
Iron Dramatist
Hi -
Here's the graphic from the rules. The formula calculates the 'distance' in terms of both winner and loser scores for each person's pick, and the actual score of the game. Closest (as in horseshoes) is the winner. This equally values both the total score of the game and the spread, and when I have run the show I applied this rule because it feels like this gets the choice best. Point spread alone doesn't tell the story, nor does the total score. Creating a variable like this gets at both of those things well, so that's what I implemented (and other Grand Poohbahs have thought the variable worked well to distinguish among tiebreaker scores, so we've used it for years).
Here is this week's picks between Jason and Rick:
So, first, neither pick was particularly good! But if you measure the distance between Jason's pick and the actual score, it's a couple points better than Rick's. So Jason edges out Rick as the less bad prediction
Here's the graphic from the rules. The formula calculates the 'distance' in terms of both winner and loser scores for each person's pick, and the actual score of the game. Closest (as in horseshoes) is the winner. This equally values both the total score of the game and the spread, and when I have run the show I applied this rule because it feels like this gets the choice best. Point spread alone doesn't tell the story, nor does the total score. Creating a variable like this gets at both of those things well, so that's what I implemented (and other Grand Poohbahs have thought the variable worked well to distinguish among tiebreaker scores, so we've used it for years).
Here is this week's picks between Jason and Rick:
So, first, neither pick was particularly good! But if you measure the distance between Jason's pick and the actual score, it's a couple points better than Rick's. So Jason edges out Rick as the less bad prediction
SolaScriptura
Puritanboard Brimstone
That’s right, and if anyone doesn’t like the model, the answer is simple: simply win the Bowl Bash and then they are free to do it however they deem best the subsequent year!
But there’s a reason why so many of us have used it for so long. It just works. (Even if it does seem a bit mysterious and arcane at first glance!)
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