I am sort of glad to see the numbers decline. Why?
I believe many churches are starting to support missionaries outside the Cooperative Program who better espouse their church's theology
This is true, but it's moreso in the area of church planting and other US based ministries as opposed to concerns over the IMB, which is probably the most "popular" of all SBC programs, even among Calvinists. You would be more familiar with most with problems with the IMB. One brother who went out as a non SBC missionary told me of some of the issues. But many Calvinistic people in the SBC seem to think it's wonderful. Some of this is probably because a good number of Calvinistic men have gone into foreign missions instead of face hostility toward Calvinism at home. This is the same reason why some get into church planting rather than try to "reform" an existing church.
Also, the first action a church takes once calvinism is established in the church is to minimize or pull out of the Cooperative Program and support only missionaries who understand the sovereignty of God. Thus a decline in blind loyalty to the Cooperative Program might indicate greater discernment in the use of mission dollars rather than merely a decrease in mission dollars)
While this was generally the case with older "Sovereign Grace" Baptists (which also tended to coincide with the time in which the SBC was in the throes of liberalism in the 60's and 70's and into the 80's, especially in the state conventions) this is definitely not true in many cases today. Some Calvinistic churches give a high percentage to the CP and are sold out for the SBC. Some of this may be the thinking that they will soon have a hammer lock on the convention, among other things. And arguably they already have one where it counts on a national level, with many non-Calvinists being quite willing to work with Calvinists, thus making a powerful coalition. And the more that this happens, the less reason there is to pull out or decrease giving. After all, SBTS, SEBTS, etc. are supported by the CP and without it they would not exist. (It's to the point now where some vocal anti-Calvinists are designating their gifts around SBTS and SEBTS.) I've seen at least one prominent Founders leader say that this is the best time to be SBC in his lifetime. But minimization of CP giving is the result in some cases, especially with churches that hold to the 1689, which is by far the exception among Calvinistic men and churches in the SBC. Also, larger churches tend to give a lower percentage. Some Calvinistic churches in the SBC are quite large, including some Acts 29 churches, which are often the focus of the strongest criticism by anti-Calvinists because they focus much more on Acts 29 and related activities than the SBC.
The consistent refrain from younger Calvinistic SBC men, including some who are 1689ers, is commitment to the SBC and cooperation with non-Calvinists for the cause of world missions, etc. This is especially the case with those converted under SBC ministry. They will often hear nothing of leaving the SBC unless they were to be thrown out. To give one example, one of your supporting churches has a pastor who has mentioned to me over the past 5 years that this or that young Calvinistic man would soon join his church, hopefully in a fellow elder capacity eventually. Every one he has mentioned has not done so, and this in one of the states that is said to be most hostile to Calvinism. (Two of them I can think of are currently in ministry in SBC churches.) Some of this is due to a lack of educational opportunities otherwise. As I believe you and I have discussed in the past, there remains a lack of educational opportunities for aspiring ministers in sovereign grace and Reformed Baptist churches, especially if one is looking for something beyond basic pastoral ministry education. If you are SBC you get a 50% discount at seminary. And even without the discount the seminaries are already less expensive than almost all Reformed seminaries with the exception of GPTS and maybe a few smaller ones that are probably likewise unaccredited.
The main exceptions (i.e. leaving the SBC) I can think of are in situations in which there are significant problems with the association or state convention. But even then you can just give on a national level. I just saw a "Reformed Baptist" blogger loudly proclaim that he was "leaving the convention". I thought that meant he was leaving the SBC but in his case it appears to be only the state convention for now. But most who affiliate only on a national basis are more nominally affiliated, which would fit in with your statement.
Also, it is my understanding that to "pull out of the Cooperative Program" is to pull out of the SBC altogether. As I understand it, it is Cooperative Program giving that determines whether or not a church is in the SBC.
The slow but steady Calvinization of the SBC also makes it less likely that you'll have the same number of disgruntled Baptists in the pews of PCA congregations as you have in the past 25 years or so.
