Notes On North Korea

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Bladestunner316

Puritan Board Doctor
Red Skies On the Horizon:
Some Quick Notes On North Korea
June 2, 2004
by R. W. Koontz

According to nuclear weapons experts, North Korea now has the capability to produce somewhere between five and ten nuclear weapons each year - using weapons grade plutonium the North Koreans indigenously produce.

North Korea has been found to have exported at least two tons of nuclear materials to Libya. While this nuclear material was not in a form that could be used immediately to make nuclear weapons, and would require much and very sophisticated processing, the fact remains that North Korea has been found to have exported nuclear materials to a Middle East country.

North Korea has threatened to export nuclear weapons. Yes, North Korea is known for its hyperbolic rhetoric, yet this threat cannot be ignored in light of the fact that North Korea has been found to have already exported nuclear materials to Libya.

North Korea already exports long-range ballistic missile and WMD technology to Iran, Syria and other Middle Eastern states, including Yemen. These long-range ballistic missiles have provided a way for Iran to deliver weapons of mass destruction against Israel and against U.S. and allied forces in the Persian Gulf and Middle East areas, including Iraq and Kuwait. These WMD-capable missiles can also reach Saudi Arabia.

About six weeks ago, In mid-April of this year, 2004, Vice President Cheney essentially warned the North Koreans that time was running out for them to act to stop their nuclear weapons program. The words that Vice President Cheney used were, "time is not on our side."

North Korea recently indicated that the United States flew almost 200 intelligence missions over its country during the month of May. This may not be a precisely accurate number, but the fact remains that it is possible that the United States is gathering intelligence at a very stepped-up rate over North Korea.

North Korea has recently indicated that it has a strong belief that United States is preparing to attack.

Other Facts of Interest

There appears to have been significant diplomatic activity in the last few months that has centered around what might be an almost last ditch attempt to bring the North Korean situation to a peaceful conclusion. Also, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il visited with leaders in China recently.

Historically, China has been North Korea's patron, and North Korea has historically been viewed as a surrogate for the PRC. But, of late this kind of thinking has not been invoked.

China provides North Korea with a very large amount of food and energy resources and could strongly influence or even force North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons program if China would decide to do so. That is conventional thinking, at least.

My Conclusion

Based on information that is in addition to what has been presented, my conclusion is that war with North Korea could occur by the end of the summer or in that time period. Many of the US forces needed for this are already in place, more are being dispatched in surge.

I also conclude that such a war would quickly become massively nuclear and also chemical and bacteriological after we first use conventional weapons to attack North Korea's nuclear sites.

Seoul could be lost, as could Tokyo. But as many as 100 U.S. nuclear weapons might be used to keep this from happening.

Pressure must be applied to China to stop this war from happening as China can rein in North Korea with a single phone call.

If war comes, it is a war that Jiang Zemin and the central communist party figures of China want and have engineered -- to weaken the United States and put China in a better position to take back Taiwan. [Note: Jiang Zemin controls the army even though he is no longer president of China.]

-- R. Koontz

Bob Koontz is a Ph.D. experimental nuclear physicist and former member of U.S. intelligence. His national security web site messages may be found at http://www.INTELmessages.org/
 
Interesting info. I hope his conclusions do not prove true...
It doesn't seem so likely to me that a war would be emminant there. Perhaps some missile strikes. But we don't have the man power. And China would probably use this diversion as a means to take over Taiwan and anything around there that they can while we are busy in Korea. Plus, just because there are reports of N. Koreans complaining about fly overs or expecting an invasion doesn't mean it's true. They are probably doing that to keep their own people frightened of the US and pro-communist.

[Edited on 6-26-2004 by puritansailor]
 
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