RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATRINA HAS STARTED TO MOVE NEARLY DUE
WESTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/4. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
AND MIGRATE WESTWARD... ALLOWING KATRINA TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING. THE NEW SUITE OF GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST... AS HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SEEMS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH EMERGING
AGAIN OVER WATER. AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DOMINATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING KATRINA TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS....
BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECAST A
MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD
ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
