Mexico flu 'a potential pandemic'

[LeeJUk]

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Mexico flu 'a potential pandemic'

Hope it doesn't become a widespread problem.

Haven't heard a lot about bird flu in a long while, guess that threat is controlled now or is the media just lazy?

 

[Montanablue]

How horrible Hopefully the CDC will be able to help them out...

 

[Laura]

Wow, I had just been reading about a handful of suspicious cases in Japan. This hits a lot closer to home. Here's a thread on a nursing forum that has frequent updates. It sounds like those who live in the southwestern states should be mindful of what's going on, just in case.

 

[OPC'n]

This is too bad.

 

[NaphtaliPress]

The news last night was calling it a swine flu but has some avian mixed in as well as human.

 

[DMcFadden]

Indeed, it is the hybridization into a form previously unknown that has folks in the southwest so concerned. Several cases have appeared in the San Diego area and the L.A. health mucky muck said it is inevitable that it will spread to Los Angeles. The question has to do with potency. Only one of the San Diego cases could not be treated on an outpatient basis. However, since 99 of my 350 seniors are in our skilled nursing facility, I am more than a little concerned for them. Influenza is most dangerous for infants and for the elderly. We typically immunize all of our skilled nursing patients against the flu, but this one is a unique strain against which we have no immunity.

Pray for us. And, may this be a relatively short lived and somewhat mild influenza.

 

[a mere housewife]

Dennis, we will certainly pray for your community. The one in Mexico is rather unique in that it is not claiming the young or the elderly, but rather healthy young adults. Is this also the case in CA?

PS. I had to smile to see them on the video handing out the germ masks at an open air market: I miss the open air markets terribly: I have very happy memories of them: but to buy a germ mask at the one we regularly went to, considering the other hygiene issues, would have been a little ironic.

 

[DMcFadden]

Heidi, I don't know enough yet to comment. Cases in CA are still just a handful.

Here is a recent news report from this morning.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that the virus has spread widely and cannot be contained, Reuters reported.

"It is clear that this is widespread. And that is why we have let you know that we cannot contain the spread of this virus," Reuters quoted the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat.

The disease has already reached Texas and California, and with 24 new suspected cases reported Saturday in Mexico City alone, schools were closed and all public events suspended in the capital until further notice — including more than 500 concerts and other gatherings in the metropolis of 20 million.

 

[Theoretical]

Supposedly its a new avian-swine-human hybrid form of H1N1, one of the types of flu that's been circulating in the human population for some time. The first number refers to a protein that basically determines how effectively it invades a cell (Hemagglutinin) and the second to an enzyme that determines how effectively it reproduces and spreads (Neuramindase). "Bird flu" is H5N1, the former of which is why people are so scared of it, since the general population has not been exposed to H5 at all.

A lot of how severe it is will depend how radically different it is from garden variety H1N1 since immunity to the flu virus is more of a reduction in intensity than a true immunity, since it mutates incredibly rapidly. The more different this thing is from garden variety, the more likely a pandemic results. Unfortuantely, we are overdue for one, as the last was in 1969.

To the PB nurses/docs, if I got any of this wrong feel free to correct me.

Edit - To Heidi's point - that's extremely disturbing it's affecting the young adults the most. If so, then it's got some similarities in terms of severity to the "Spanish Flu"' characteristic trait. The reason it would be doing this is basically using young adults' strong immune systems against them by causing the immune system to have such a strong reaction that it overwhelms even healthy tissue.

This is definitely something to pray about, especially in a world linked by international air travel.

 

[Edward]

I've seen reports that it is already in south Texas and southern California.

Sounds like possibly NYC as well.

 

[Berean]

I've seen reports that due to the large numbers of 'kids' spending their spring break in Mexico that it could aid in the spread as they travel throughout the U.S.

Even the RCC is taking notice. A new twist on fulfilling your 'obligation':

The local Roman Catholic Church recommended that priests shorten Mass; place communion wafers in worshippers' hands, instead of their mouths; and ask parishioners to avoid kissing or shaking hands during the rite of peace. The Archdiocese also said Catholics could fulfill their Mass obligation by radio. -- AP

And mail in your offering?

 

[Ivan]

Doesn't Look Good!

New U.S. swine flu cases spread pandemic fears - Infectious diseases- msnbc.com

 

[Abd_Yesua_alMasih]

How serious is this? Any doctors out there?

From the article I got the impression it was overblown.

It seemed like the doctor was asked directly if she thought it could be a pandemic and she said "...it has pandemic potential because it is infecting people." Not the greatest reason. Sounds more like she just isn't ruling anything out. "However, she said, WHO cannot say whether the disease will cause a pandemic"

"After the meeting, Paul Garwood, a WHO spokesman, said the agency declined to upgrade its alert level, which stands at 3 and means "no or very limited human-to-human transmission.""

From the traces of the things they say this does not sound very serious for the global scale. How much of this is media hype?

 

[DMcFadden]

How serious is this? Any doctors out there?

From the article I got the impression it was overblown.

It seemed like the doctor was asked directly if she thought it could be a pandemic and she said "...it has pandemic potential because it is infecting people." Not the greatest reason. Sounds more like she just isn't ruling anything out. "However, she said, WHO cannot say whether the disease will cause a pandemic"

"After the meeting, Paul Garwood, a WHO spokesman, said the agency declined to upgrade its alert level, which stands at 3 and means "no or very limited human-to-human transmission.""

From the traces of the things they say this does not sound very serious for the global scale. How much of this is media hype?

Media hype? Media hype? Oh no! Not the dreaded media hype! That is more deadly than the swine flu!!! And . . . it is pandemic! Oh the humanity, the humanity!!!

Of course it is media hype. But, when you work with people with compromised immune systems like I do, excessive vomiting and diarrhea is NEVER as mild as it seems. Currently it is an "epidemic" rather than a pandemic. But, H1 does have a history of human pandemics (e.g., 1969's Hong Kong flu which, by the way, was no picnic for those of us that got it!), even in a relatively mild form.

 

[Leslie]

Reportedly there were no deaths in the states but there were deaths in Mexico. The only stats that the WHO gets are those given it by the government health agencies. The only stats that the agencies get are those people who present for care to competent, registered and licensed practitioners. The only people who present to competent practitioners are people with money. Poor people just die without anyone knowing or caring why. Hence it's quite likely that the situation is both longer-lasting and involves far more people than what is being reported.

 

[Montanablue]

Reportedly there were no deaths in the states but there were deaths in Mexico. The only stats that the WHO gets are those given it by the government health agencies. The only stats that the agencies get are those people who present for care to competent, registered and licensed practitioners. The only people who present to competent practitioners are people with money. Poor people just die without anyone knowing or caring why. Hence it's quite likely that the situation is both longer-lasting and involves far more people than what is being reported.

I spent some time in Mexico, and I think its extremely likely that many many more people have died than has been reported - simply becasue so many people don't have the ability or money to get to a doctor.

 

[Hawaiian Puritan]

Swine flu cases now total 7: CDC - KHNL NBC 8 Honolulu Hawaii-

Seven people in California and Texas have now been diagnosed with a unique form of swine flu, U.S. health officials said Thursday. All seven people have recovered, Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during an afternoon teleconference. "So far this is not looking like a very severe influenza," she said.

 

[SolaGratia]

The latest from Mexico (Not America)!

Primero Noticias Blog Archive » Virus de la influenza

 

[DMcFadden]

I believe that the early reports from the US are encouraging on the severity of this outbreak, even if it does go pandemic.

Here are some facts about the virus and flu viruses in general:

* The virus is an influenza A virus, carrying the designation H1N1.

* It is genetically different from the fully human H1N1 seasonal influenza virus that has been circulating globally for the past few years. The new flu virus contains DNA typical to avian, swine and human viruses, including elements from European and Asian swine viruses.

* Flu viruses mutate constantly, which is why the flu vaccine is changed every year, and they can also swap DNA in a process called re-assortment. Most animals can get flu but viruses rarely pass from one species to another.

* From December 2005 through February 2009, 12 cases of human infection with swine influenza were confirmed, all but one among people who had contact with pigs. There was no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

* Symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to those of seasonal influenza — sudden onset of fever, coughing, muscle aches and extreme tiredness. Swine flu appears to cause more diarrhea and vomiting than normal flu.

* People rarely catch avian flus. Notable exceptions include the H1N1 strain that caused the 1918 pandemic and H5N1 bird flu, which has killed 257 out of 421 infected in 15 countries since 2003, according to the World Health Organization.

* Seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally in an average year.

* When a new strain of flu starts infecting people, and when it acquires the ability to pass from person to person, it can spark a pandemic. The last pandemic was in 1968 and killed about a million people.

* In 1976 a new strain of swine flu started infecting people and worried U.S. health officials started widespread vaccination. More than 40 million people were vaccinated. But several cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a severe and sometime fatal condition that can be linked to come vaccines, caused the U.S. government to stop the program. The incident led to widespread distrust of vaccines in general.

 

[Croghanite]

Associated Press

“CDC officials detected a virus with a unique combination of gene segments that have not been seen in people or pigs before,”


From AP video
“This strain of swine influenza that’s been cultured in a laboratory is something that’s not been seen anywhere actually in the United States and the world, so this is actually a new strain of influenza that’s been identified,” said Dr. John Carlo, Dallas Co. Medical Director

 

[christianyouth]

*waits to hear some Christian somewhere say this is God's judgment against America*

 

[lynnie]

1918 flu pandemic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This could be another like the 1918 H1N1.

I'm going to do everything I can to be ready for major disruptions (shipping, shopping.) If this is a pandemic in the making it can peak in 3 months.

Got a will with legal guardians for your kids, just in case? You want the state to decide who gets them?

Plenty of great reformers in centuries of old saw plague as judgment.

 

[Berean]

*waits to hear some Christian somewhere say this is God's judgment against America*

I assume you're not talking about Fred Phelps

 

[toddpedlar]

1918 flu pandemic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This could be another like the 1918 H1N1.

I'm going to do everything I can to be ready for major disruptions (shipping, shopping.) If this is a pandemic in the making it can peak in 3 months.

Got a will with legal guardians for your kids, just in case? You want the state to decide who gets them?

Plenty of great reformers in centuries of old saw plague as judgment.

Take a breath.... comparisons of any modern outbreak to 1918 is ludicrous. The medical situation today is NOTHING like the situation was then.

Medical care was NOWHERE near as widespread and available.
There was no such thing as an antibiotic.
There was no such thing as a sulfa-based drug.

Take a look at the whole situation before advocating heading for the hills with fresh fruits and pointed sticks.

 

[Abd_Yesua_alMasih]

This is getting all too real. Sat down to dinner tonight to watch a crime drama when TVs flickered and a breaking news screen came through and the Minister of Health announced that 10 New Zealanders have the flu and the government is taking certain measures and isolating them and set up systems to cope with the spread.

 

[Abd_Yesua_alMasih]

And breaking news is it is now in my city. Hmmm

 

[Herald]

Indeed, it is the hybridization into a form previously unknown that has folks in the southwest so concerned. Several cases have appeared in the San Diego area and the L.A. health mucky muck said it is inevitable that it will spread to Los Angeles. The question has to do with potency. Only one of the San Diego cases could not be treated on an outpatient basis. However, since 99 of my 350 seniors are in our skilled nursing facility, I am more than a little concerned for them. Influenza is most dangerous for infants and for the elderly. We typically immunize all of our skilled nursing patients against the flu, but this one is a unique strain against which we have no immunity.

Pray for us. And, may this be a relatively short lived and somewhat mild influenza.

Dennis, I already have received calls from one of my assisted living chains about a disinfectant that will kill the swine flu. Thankfully, I have such a product. It looks as though certain folks are taking this serious. I pray it does not become as bad as the warnings speculate.

 

[Herald]

1918 flu pandemic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This could be another like the 1918 H1N1.

I'm going to do everything I can to be ready for major disruptions (shipping, shopping.) If this is a pandemic in the making it can peak in 3 months.

Got a will with legal guardians for your kids, just in case? You want the state to decide who gets them?

Plenty of great reformers in centuries of old saw plague as judgment.

Take a breath.... comparisons of any modern outbreak to 1918 is ludicrous. The medical situation today is NOTHING like the situation was then.

Medical care was NOWHERE near as widespread and available.
There was no such thing as an antibiotic.
There was no such thing as a sulfa-based drug.

Take a look at the whole situation before advocating heading for the hills with fresh fruits and pointed sticks.

Todd, you're right. But there are certain groups that are more at risk than others. Children, the elderly, anyone with a weakened immune system. It's not panic to take proactive measures to limit or deal with exposure.

 

[Abd_Yesua_alMasih]

1918 flu pandemic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This could be another like the 1918 H1N1.

I'm going to do everything I can to be ready for major disruptions (shipping, shopping.) If this is a pandemic in the making it can peak in 3 months.

Got a will with legal guardians for your kids, just in case? You want the state to decide who gets them?

Plenty of great reformers in centuries of old saw plague as judgment.

Take a breath.... comparisons of any modern outbreak to 1918 is ludicrous. The medical situation today is NOTHING like the situation was then.

Medical care was NOWHERE near as widespread and available.
There was no such thing as an antibiotic.
There was no such thing as a sulfa-based drug.

Take a look at the whole situation before advocating heading for the hills with fresh fruits and pointed sticks.

Todd, you're right. But there are certain groups that are more at risk than others. Children, the elderly, anyone with a weakened immune system. It's not panic to take proactive measures to limit or deal with exposure.

Funnily enough this virus seems to be targeting young males who should be in the prime of their life.

 

[a mere housewife]

Funnily enough this virus seems to be targeting young males who should be in the prime of their life.

Would that make sense if they're the ones keeping the pigs and this is only caught/spread from pigs?

I also wonder if one reason they are finding more cases of this now worldwide is that they are suddenly testing for it -- when West Nile came through a few years ago, Ruben had a fever that was crazily high: the doctor would normally have just written a prescription but sent him for bloodwork. I suspect this happens anytime people are on the alert for something: so cases that normally go undetected start turning up?

I also wonder if one reason this has hit some places harder than others might have to do with the quality of medical care available for instance in Mexico to those who keep pigs etc. We lived in an area where people did this, and when we went to the 2 dollar doctora she was incredibly nice and caring; but she diagnosed an inflamed UTI solely from hemoglobin in my urine and a bp of 78/54. Meanwhile I was slowly suffocating from the altitude (the hemoglobin was actually something to do with marrow, my dr. here tells me: but my dr. here knows something about altitude illness); but she wasn't trained to think of altitude. Almost all the women in our church were diagnosed with inflamed UTI's with all sorts of symptoms. I did read in one article that this virus was being successfully treated on an outpatient basis in one area; but it is not likely that a 2 dollar doctor would know how to treat/what to prescribe for this kind of illness, without being specially instructed.